Equities update - October 9th 2026

Week 41 saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reach fresh records, even as much of the equity market remained under pressure. Breadth remains thin, as of 7 October only 29% of S&P 500 constituents were trading above their 50-day moving average and 47% above their 200-day, down from a 73% peak in August, even as the index set a fresh record on the 6th.  This reliance on a small group of companies leaves headline indices particularly sensitive to their earnings and outlooks. Technology shares subsequently weakened as investors questioned whether AI revenue growth could justify the scale of infrastructure investment, sharpening the focus on financing requirements and the timing of cash generation. Elevated Treasury yields and persistent oil-price pressure added to these concerns, while the Fed minutes signalled support for another hike before year-end, despite expectations of an October pause. Some relief emerged on Thursday after President Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the 3 November midterm elections. The announcement eased immediate escalation fears, although high energy prices continued to complicate the inflation outlook. Within blockchain equities, performance was more varied: select pureplay companies performed well, supported by positive developments in tokenisation and Bitcoin’s relative outperformance, while miners pursuing capital-intensive AI expansion remained more exposed to financing pressures and changing expectations for infrastructure returns.

Week 41 Key Developments in Blockchain Equities:

• Index Performance: The Index declined (4.2%) over the week, compared with Bitcoin’s (2.1%) fall, against a backdrop of persistent inflation pressures and volatile bond markets. Monday’s ISM Services PMI eased to 54.9 from 55.4, but its prices-paid index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022, highlighting continued cost pressures despite slower activity. Wednesday’s Fed minutes reinforced the prospect of further tightening, with most policymakers judging another hike appropriate before year-end, although investors continued to favour December rather than October following last week’s softer employment and inflation data. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached approximately 5.36%, a 24-year high, before strong demand at Treasury auctions helped yields retreat. 

• Block Index Key Movers: 7-day top performers: Nu Holdings (+15.7%), MercadoLibre (+10.2%), Mastercard (+4.5%) 7-day worst performers: Metaplanet (-16.1%), Bit Digital (-16.0%), CleanSpark (-15.1%) 

• This week saw blockchain distribution extend further into everyday financial services, led by Index constituent Samsung’s planned integration of stablecoins into Samsung Wallet. Coinbase, working with licensed infrastructure provider Bastion, will support USDC as the default dollar stablecoin, with transfers running on Solana. The service is scheduled to launch in the last week of October across 82 million eligible US Galaxy devices, including remittances to bank accounts in more than 60 countries. Coinbase will provide subcustody through Prime, while Bastion supplies custody, account operations and compliance infrastructure. The significance lies in embedding stablecoin services within a familiar wallet, removing the need to download a separate crypto app or manage private keys. In our view, this could reduce customer acquisition friction and make stablecoins more accessible for cross-border payments. For Circle, the opportunity is to grow sustained USDC balances through consumer distribution; for Coinbase, it extends the commercial reach of its institutional infrastructure beyond exchange trading. The 82 million devices represent potential reach, however, with commercial success ultimately dependent on active users, repeat transfers and retained balances.

• The AI trade weakened this week as investors reassessed whether revenue growth can support the scale of infrastructure spending, putting particular pressure on Bitcoin miners pursuing AI/HPC expansion. Reports that OpenAI’s annualised revenue was approaching US$50bn, below the previously indicated US$70bn, unsettled expectations for AI demand, although part of the discrepancy reportedly reflects differences in accounting for partner revenues. Miners are particularly sensitive because much of their AI valuation rests on projects requiring substantial investment before generating cash flow. Higher financing costs and concerns about overbuilding therefore weigh on both expected project returns and the value investors assign to undeveloped power capacity. Nevertheless, December could provide an important catalyst for miners with Texas development pipelines. ERCOT expects to provide final Batch Zero classifications in December, with eligibility-verification and community-impact reports due by 10 December. Projects retaining Base Load status could gain greater certainty over previously allocated capacity, although classification does not automatically grant permission to energise. Favourable outcomes could reduce execution risk, advance tenant negotiations and support financing, helping investors assign greater value to projects currently discounted for regulatory uncertainty. This could be particularly relevant to index constituents with Texas exposure, including Cipher Digital, Galaxy, Riot Platforms, Core Scientific, CleanSpark, Hut 8 and IREN, with the benefit depending on each project’s classification and development readiness.

Other news - Index constituents:

• Flávio Bolsonaro’s stronger-than-expected first-round election lead in Brazil, alongside gains for his congressional allies, raised expectations of tighter fiscal policy and a more business-friendly administration providing a tailwind for index constituents Nu Holdings and MercadoLibre. The key transmission mechanism is improved fiscal credibility, which could reduce Brazil’s risk premium and create room for lower interest rates, supporting equity valuations. For Nu, this could support credit demand and borrowers’ repayment capacity; for MercadoLibre, stronger consumer confidence could benefit commerce, payments and lending activity.

• Circle announced a partnership with SAP-backed Tereina on 7 October to integrate USDC and EURC into enterprise payment workflows, starting with SAP Cloud ERP and SAP Pay. This extends stablecoin distribution into the applications companies use to manage invoices, payments and treasury operations, potentially reducing implementation and reconciliation friction. The opportunity is particularly relevant to cross-border corporate payments, although customer proof-of-value programmes are still planned over the coming months. The announcement’s 84% of global commerce figure describes the wider SAP ecosystem, rather than payment volume secured by Circle; commercial significance will depend on customer deployments and sustained balances.

• SBI’s Project Trinity consortium, including SMBC, Daiwa Securities, Osaka Digital Exchange, Progmat and Datachain, announced completion of its operational settlement tests on 6 October. The trials used actually issued security tokens and a trust-based stablecoin to exchange securities and payment simultaneously between SBI Securities and Daiwa. The immediate objective is T+2 delivery-versus-payment settlement, with instant settlement remaining a longer-term ambition.

• Standard Chartered announced plans on 8 October to offer Singapore custody for selected cryptoassets, stablecoins and tokenised assets, subject to regulatory requirements. The service would sit alongside its existing financing and securities-servicing operations. This could help institutions manage traditional and digital assets within an established banking relationship, reducing operational barriers to adoption.

• Metaplanet disclosed that it sold 10,000 BTC and subsequently purchased 11,000 BTC during Q3, ending September with 44,000 BTC. The exercise demonstrated its willingness to realise liquidity as it pursues broader financing access; it did not repay the underlying obligations. Separately, a new income strategy targets securities yielding more than its funding costs, within a 10–15% strategic investment allocation, while Bitcoin remains 85–90% of assets. 

• Strategy’s 5 October disclosure showed purchases of 334 BTC for US28.7m, taking holdings to 848,000 BTC, alongside, US176.3m of STRC repurchases over 28 September–4 October. Its USD Reserve was US4.88bn, with a separate US833.4m of USD Cash.

Other news – Non - Index constituents:

• OKXICE, the joint venture between OKX and NYSE owner ICE, filed with the SEC for a platform offering 24/7 tokenised US-stock trading. Its proposed structure uses permissioned Uniswap v4 liquidity pools on XLayer, with securities traded against supported payment stablecoins. This brings exchange infrastructure into closer competition with crypto-native trading platforms and creates another potential source of stablecoin settlement demand.

• Securitize launched tokenised exposure to 12 US stocks, initially on Solana, with USDC settlement. Each token is backed by a share and represents a security entitlement, with applicable economic and voting rights; holders become registered shareholders only if they convert where available. Initial trading uses its broker-dealer platform during extended hours.

• OCBC and Ant International launched a tokenised-deposit solution on 7 October enabling 24/7 movement of SGD- and USD-denominated deposits between Ant’s entities in Singapore and Malaysia through WhaleRTP. The practical benefit is greater flexibility in deploying working capital outside banking cut-off times, alongside improved reconciliation. This is also relevant to the competitive landscape: banks are developing blockchain payment capabilities while retaining customer funds as commercial-bank deposits, giving corporate treasurers an alternative to transferring liquidity into stablecoins. Separately, HSBC and Ant International expanded tokenised treasury activity into the Middle East, following pilot transactions involving UAE-dirham transfers and cross-border dollar payments.